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On 21st August, 1962, two Bills were introduced in the parliament by the then prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru for the creation of the state of Nagaland and the thirteenth Constitution Amendment Bill. The creation of Nagaland state by the 13th Amendment Act of 1962 unlocked a new chapter in the political dynamics and electoral politics of the state. The first Lok Sabha election was held in 1967 for the lone seat in the lower house of Parliament. Till now, Nagaland has witnessed the 15th Lok Sabha general election. Since then, India National Congress (INC) won the maximum number of times (i.e.5 times). But in the last five Lok Sabha elections, Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) won three times and National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) twice: by poll and the concluded 2019 Lok Sabha election. An important aspect of an election is not just about who won the election but is also concerned with why people voted and what influences the voters to vote. In a democratic system, electoral choices are at the centre of the political process and naturally, the study of electoral behaviour constitutes a core theme in political behaviour research on how voters reach their decisions. There are certain determinants of voting behaviour in India. The behaviour of a voter in India is influenced by several factors such as religion, caste, community, language, money, ideology, policy, political wave, leadership etc. The role of all these factors can be examined to understand the behaviour of voters in India. Therefore, this paper attempts to identify some factors associated with the conventional political behaviour of voters in Nagaland in terms of factors influencing voters’ behaviour such as identification with party and candidate, party ideology, and socio-economic and political participation at various levels.

Voting preferences are an outcome of various pressures working on an individual in a social milieu. Therefore, an understanding of voting behaviour is a study of socio-cultural processes, which influence the psychology of voters (Sirsikar, 1965). Samuel J Eldersveld in “Theory and Method in Voting Behaviour” remarked: The term “voting behaviour” is not a new concept. It has been used of late to describe the political phenomena which previously had either not been conceived or were considered irrelevant. Voting behaviours are not confined to the examination of voting statistics, records, and computation of electoral shifts and swings. It also involves an analysis of individual psychological processes (perception, emotion and motivation) and their relation to political action as well as of institutional patterns, such as the communication process and their impact on elections (Eldersveld, 1951).

Different studies have delineated the different sets of variables as determinates of voting behaviour. The sociological model also known as the Columbian school pioneered by Paul Lazarsfeld, The People’s Choice and Voting, emphasizes the impact of social and environmental factors on individuals’ voting choices[1]. The studies conducted by Michigan school associated with the psychosocial model of voting behaviour, The American Voter (Campbell et at.1960) [2], emphasis on the party identification as the psychological attachment through the funnel of causality and shows long-term effects such as sociological, social and parental characteristics that influence the next level sequence that is partisanship. The rational choice model, submitted by Anthony Downs (1957) “An Economic Theory of Democracy”[3] argue that voting is governed less by group loyalties and class position than by an individual’s rational calculations of self-interest.

Likewise, the Indian study on electoral behaviour also tries to explain the voting preference in terms of class, factions, kinship, religion, the personality of the candidates, role of money and so on. Election studies in India started to come out after the 1960s and 1970s in the works of Rajni Kothari (1967)[4], Narain (1978)[5], Ahmad (1977)[6], Brass (1985) [7], Sirsikar (1973)[8] etc.  These studies correlate voter turnout, votes, polled by the major parties, and other variables including the various socio-economic ones. The CSDS Lokniti team[9] began to observed elections consistently since 1996 and till now went on to study both National Elections and State Elections Studies to gather data to understand not of what but of why to know the precise nature of Indian electorate behaviour and its explanatory factors and at the same time it aims to understand the trends and patterns in political processes. Sanjay Kumar and Praveen Rai (2013)[10] capture a detail account on conducting election surveys in a scientific manner on different aspects of methodologies that are relevant for measuring voting behaviour such as opinions, attitudes and perception to assess and theorise the nature of Indian democracy as well as to analyse political and economy processes in India. More recent studies on Indian elections and voting behaviour have been witnessed with the publications of the book by Ashutosh Kumar and Yatindra Singh Sisodia (2019)[11], which explore the changing trends in the political process in a historical and sociological context of Indian states to understand state-level politics, especially on electoral dynamics to develop a theoretical framework and to trace transition and reconfiguration of the electoral landscape.

The electoral politics in Nagaland was first experience in 1964, when the new state went to the general elections after rejecting the first, second and third general elections held in 1952, 1957 and 1962 offered by the Indian state. Several factors may be involved in Nagaland that influences the voting behaviour of Naga voters. Notwithstanding the late entry of electoral politics, democratic culture was in practice since time immemorial in the workings of the traditional village councils in different forms among different tribal groups. This paper aims to analyse the conventional political behaviour and participation of the voters in Nagaland as rooted in the interplay of their interactions with traditional politics and affiliations. Therefore, an attempt has been made here to analyse the electoral behaviour of the Nagaland voters based on Lok Sabha election 2019, in the perspective of voter’s identification with the party and candidate, socio-economic factors related to individual voting behaviour, political activism of voters in political participation and the other influences on an individual political behaviour.

Navin Chawla, (2019)[20], Every Vote Counts: The Story of India’s Elections. The author, a former CEC in the book shared the experiences of working in Indian elections since the first elections in Independent India and the enormous challenges to conduct polls at various stages in India. The book highlights the key role of Elections commissions as being an independent body and gives an insight into the credibility of the electoral system as the core of democracy. An important aspect of the book is the author’s argument on challenges in different chapters such as muscle and money power becoming an influential part of Indian elections and the rise of paid news for political propaganda and how political parties use all means for leverage. In another chapter, the author raises the EVM machines controversy issue and how parties that lost an election were always the first to accuse the EVMs of being hacked. However, the author explains how the processes are done and checked thoroughly to ensure the reliability of the machines thereby leaving no stone to unturn to disprove it, and quoted the survey data conducted by CSDS after the 2004 general elections on the question of EVM vs ballot papers, where overwhelming support the use of EVM (over 82%) favoured EVM. Another interesting challenge mentioned in the book chapter is the election arrangements in the Maoist corridor and the challenges faced by the police force for providing security to the people and the threats faced at the time of elections to election officials and jawans and how it was overcome. The author also declares the Jammu and Kashmir legislative elections to be the most challenging during his tenure. On the whole, the book is a brilliant observation of Indian elections and galvanises a healthy debate on various topics in the chapters. 

The book by Ashutosh Kumar and Yatindra Singh Sisodia (ed) (2019)[21], How India Votes: A State-By-State Look, is a book that draws from the CSDS-Lokniti National Elections Study 2014 data. The book as a whole examines the various multi-level changes in Indian polity and their reflection on voting patterns and benefits from long-established sources of data as explained by the Kumar in the introduction (pp1-34) and the final method by Verma and Sardesai. The book explores the changing trends in the political process in a historical and sociological context of Indian states to understand state-level politics, especially electoral dynamics to develop a theoretical framework and to trace the transition and reconfiguration of the electoral landscape.

The book by Jelle J.P. Wouters (2019)[22], Nagas as a Society Against Voting and other Essays, explores the Nagas society in a broad themein historical experiences shaped by ethnographic studies. In various chapters in the book, the author looks into the aspects of functioning democracy in Nagaland from the lenses of liberal democracy such as party-based elections, individual autonomy, and equal voting rights against the decorated ‘traditional democrats’ shaped by values of communal harmony, tribal democracy, consensus-building, and complimentary coexistence. In the book, the author raised some pertinent issues on the culture and material politics proxy voting to answer the high voter turnout in most of the elections in Nagaland and how the family, clan or village are intertwined in contemporary electoral politics and workings of traditional Naga village polities. On the question of how democracy is performed in Nagaland, the author explores the continuities and connections between the past Naga polities and modern electoral politics and argued that it needs to be contextualized based on the cultural understanding of Naga’s electoral processes and how it adjusts to modern democratic ideals.

Lok Sabha 2019: How did Voter Voted?

In 2019, Lok Sabha election, the contest in Nagaland was quadruple but the competition was between the two popular candidates K.L. Chishi, Indian National Congress (INC) and Tokheho Yepthomi, National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). The survey conducted indicated a close battle between NDPP (41.1%) and Congress (40.2 %) as shown in the graphical analysis below figure 1. As per the report of the Nagaland Election Commission, candidate Tokheho Yeothomi (NDPP) secured 500510 (49.73%) votes and K.L. Chishi (INC) secured 484166 (48.11%) votes, winning by a margin of 1.62 percent of votes.  

Figure 1: Party Voted for Lok Sabha 2019 (Nagaland)

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Source: Lokniti-CSDS data set

Voter’s Identification with Party and Candidate

Party identification is an important attitude that influences the vote (Angus Campbell, Philip E Converse, Warren E Miller, Donald E Stokes, 1960). Party identification was measured by asking the respondents how much they like Congress, NDPP, NPF, NPP and BJP. Those indicating their preferences were then asked using the Likert Scale Method: a lot, somewhat, very little, don’t like at all, can’t say. The performance of the Congress was very close to the ruling PDA candidate despite the poor result during the State Assembly election, which was a by-product of the alliance between Congress and NPF. But the push factor for a close fight was the preferences of INC party over BJP as CSDS- Post Poll survey indicated: like for Congress (a lot: 20.2%, somewhat: 52.5%, don’t like at all: 3.4%) whereas like for BJP (a lot: 3.9%, somewhat: 31.3%, don’t like at all: 33.3%) (Figure 2). If cross-tabulate the voting pattern among different sections of economic groups and education levels as shown in the graphical analysis (Figures 3 and 4), it shows that unlike other Indian states where the socio-economic factor is one of the determinants of a voter in terms of party preferences in Nagaland is it neglectable to a great extent.  

Figure 2: Like of Different Political Parties

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Source: Lokniti-CSDS data set

Figure 3: Party Identification by Different Economic Groups

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Source: Lokniti-CSDS data set

Figure 4: Party Identification by Education Level

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Source: Lokniti-CSDS data set

Figure 4: The most important consideration when voting in the Lok Sabha election

 

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Source: Lokniti-CSDS data set

Moreover, the traditional system of ‘candidate’ preference during most of the State General elections was not manifest emphatically (Figure 5). Apart from the game changer in the politics of Nagaland, that is, money power[12] and proxy voting, it could be also because of the general perception of voters as a contest between Congress and BJP, where the latter is considered as anti-christian. Second, based on the election results in almost all the Assembly constituencies the margins of victory for both the competing parties (NDPP and INC) did not have huge vote differences but the decisive factor that has elevated the vote share of NDPP could be ‘candidate’ effect of sitting MLAs of NPF who were earlier suspended by NPF from the party. As in most assembly constituencies, there were huge differences in terms of NDPP and INC votes voted[13]. Third, interestingly, preference for the prime ministerial candidate was the least significant for voters while voting for the Lok Sabha election.

Political Participation and Factors of Influence

            Political participation is the involvement of groups and individuals at various levels in the political system. In the words of Nie and Verba, ‘those legal activities by private citizens which are more or less directly aimed at influencing the selection of governmental personnel and the actions they take’ (Sharma, Reprinted 2019).  From the point of view of participation, the earlier concept was quite narrow, usually referring to citizen participation in the electoral process through voting, campaigning and other partisan activities. The concept was later broadened to include activities in the period between elections also, when citizens try to influence government decisions (Sharma, Reprinted 2019). It is therefore important to explore and study many other forms of political participation in which citizens participate in relation to varied issues.

In all societies, people participate in politics, but in some societies, more people participate in politics than others. To measure the level of participation of the sample voters, political participation was examined from different angles i.e. turnout, interest in election campaign, elections people participate in various activities, and membership of any political party.  

The voter turnout in Nagaland 2019 Lok Sabha election was 83.08 percent, which is 4.24 percent lesser compared to the 87.82 percent figure in 2014 Lok Sabha election[14]. In response to voter’s participation in the Lok Sabha election 2019’, about 87.6 percent voted and only 12.1 percent did not vote (Figure 5). However, there is no conclusive evidence that high voter turn could be a reflection of strong pro-incumbency or anti-incumbency sentiment. Moreover, electoral ills such as proxy voting, money politics, household voting, village directives, and clan directives are quite prevalent in almost all the elections in Nagaland whether it is assembly or parliamentary elections[15]. Another factor could be due to mobilised participation by other actors through coercion, persuasion and material inducements that made people to take part in voting. It is indeed because of these factors that high turnout in Nagaland cannot be equate with citizenry as active participants in the political process.

Figure 5: Did you vote or did not vote (Lok Sabha Election 2019)

The methodology for the study was based on National Election Studies (NES) Post-Poll Lok Sabha, 2019 survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), New Delhi. Moreover, secondary sources related to the concerned topic area were referred to for a broad understanding of the topic.

The sample was selected from 8 (eight) Assembly Constituencies using Probability Proportional to Size Method (PPS)- Dimapur III, Shamator-Chessore, Arkakong, Southern Angami I, Bhandari, Aghunato, Peren, Tamlu constituencies from each district of Nagaland. Within the Assembly Constituencies, 3 (three) polling stations were selected from each sampled constituency using the Systematic Random Sampling (SRS) technique. The respondents were also selected using SRS method from the latest updated electoral rolls. From each polling station, 20 persons were selected using SRS method from electoral rolls. The survey was conducted through interview method using questionnaire as a tool by trained Field Investigators to collect information on the respondents’ socio-economic background and political opinions and voting decisions.

1. Achanger, (2018, Jan-June ). The Nature of Party Politics in Nagaland (1964-2018): An Analysis of Trends and Prespectives. SKWC Journal of Social Sciences , 27-62. 2. Ahmad, Imtiaz (1977), Election Studies in India, Economic and Political Weekly, Sep. 24. 1977, Vol. 12, No. 39, pp. 1677-1680, http//www.jstor.org/stabe/4365960 3. Angus Campbell, Philip E Converse, Warren E Miller, Donald E Stokes. (1960). The American Voter . Chicago, USA: The University of Chicago Press. 4. Antunes, R. J. (2010). Theoretical Models of Voting Behaviour. Retrieved May, 2022, from ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242653736_Theoretical_models_of_voting_behaviour 5. Brass, Paul (1985), Caste, Faction and Party in Indian Politics. Election Studies, Volume II. Chanakya Publications. 6. Eldersveld, Samuel J (1951), Theory and Method in Voting Behaviour Research, The Journal of Politics, Vol.13. No.1, pp70-87, The University of Chicago Press, http//www/jstor.org/stable/2126123 7. Chief Electoral Officer, Govt. of Nagland (2019), Report on the General Election to the 17th Lok Sabha, 2019 from 1 Nagaland Parliamentary Constituency, https://ceo.nagaland.gov.in/ElectionFiles/LS/17th_General_Election_Report_LS_2019.pdf 8. Kothari, Rajni (2002), Memoris: Uneasy in the Life of the Mind, Rupa & Co, 2002. 9. Kumar, Ashutosh & Yatindra Singh Sisodia, (ed) (2019), How India Votes: A State-By-State Look, Orient Blackswan Pvt Ltd, New Delhi. 10. Kumar, Sanjay & Praveen Rai (2013), Measuring Voting Behaviour In India, Sage Publications India Pvt Ltd, New Delhi. 11. Lazarsfeld, Paul (1968),The Peoples Choice: How the Voter Makes up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign, 3rd edition, Columbia University Press. 12. Lokniti- Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, National Elections Studies, 2019 https://www.lokniti.org/national-election-studies. 13. Morung Express, (2018), Cost of one Election in Nagaland: A 'cool' figure of over Rs. 1061 Crore, Retrieved August, 2022, https://morungexpress.com/cost-one-election-nagaland-cool-figure-over-rs-1061-crore 14. Sharma, A. A. (Reprinted 2019). Political Sociology. Noida: University Press (India) Private Limited. 15. Sirsikar, V. (1965). Political Behaviour in India: A Case Study of the 1962 General Elections. First Edition, Bombay: Manaktalas. 16. Wouters, J. J. (2014, April 19). Performing Democracy in Nagaland: Past Polities and Present Politics . Economic and Political Weekly , pp. 59-65. 17. Youthnet, (2016), YouthNet's Studies Show almost 1000 Crores spent in 2013 Assembly Elections, Retrieved June, 2022, https://www.youthnet.org.in/youthnets-studies-show-almost-1000-crores-spent-in-2013-assembly-elections/

1. The sociological model also known as Columbian school, whose works began with the publication of the book The People’s Choice: How the Voter Makes up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign by Lazarsfeld, Berelson and Gaudet (1944). The model links voting behaviour to group membership, suggesting that electors tend to adopt a voting pattern that reflects the economic and social position of the group to which they belong and highlights the importance of a social alignment, reflecting the various divisions and tensions within society. The most significant of these divisions are class, gender, ethnicity, religion and region.
2. It is originated in the studies conducted by Campbell and Kahn (1952) in The People Elect a President; the elections of 1952 report by Campbell, Gurin and Miller in The Voter Decides (1954) and elections in 1956 and later led to the publication of The American Voters by Campbell, Converse Miller and Stokes, 1960
3. The main thesis is that parties in democratic politics are analogous to entrepreneurs in a profit-seeking economy. So, to attain private ends, the parties formulate policies to gain the most votes and assumed that citizens behave rationally in politics.
4. In his Memoirs (2002), Kothari recalls how he went to Michigan University, which had developed an expertise in psephology, i.e. the statistical analysis of elections. Kothari applied the method in his work at the Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), which he had founded a few years earlier, in 1963. The first election to which he applied this newly acquired expertise was the Kerala state election in 1965. The CSDS team then went on to study general elections in 1967, 1971 and 1980.
5. See Iqbal Narain, K.C. Pande, M.L. Sharma and Hansa Rajpal (1978), Election Studies in India: An Evaluation (ICSSR Report), New Delhi provide a reviews of election studies in India.
6. Imtiaz Ahamnd, Election Studies in India, (1977) study was based on the nation- wide sample survey of the 1967 and 1971 general elections. According to the analysis, the voters in India were as perceptive and interested in political issues and parties in elections as were voters in developed countries. The study also found that the variables of socio- economic status, including education and castes were important factors for the formation of political perception such as a sense of political efficacy, those who were more exposed to the campaign, more educated and who voted regularly were more interested in politics and more likely to support multi-party democracy, those who were highly educated or in high castes were less likely to be politically involved and participatory.
7. Paul Brass, Caste, Faction and Party in Indian Politics. Volume Two: Election Studies (1985), offers a detailed discussion of the advantages and limitations of ecological approaches. Brass focus on the sociological characteristics of voters, which determine the construction of their representation of politics and their social solidarity and argued that ecological analyses had a useful place in India electoral studies.
8. V.M. Sirisikar, Sovereigns without Crowns, (1973) studies the Poona Lok Sabha constituency in the 1967election. He tests six general hypotheses about voting behaviour in that particular area. The hypothesis were: highly educated voters tend to vote for the opposition parties; minority voters, linguistic or religious, tend to support congress; caste loyalties influence voting, occupation and income voters do not influence their voting; lower the level of education of the family, the higher the influences of the family head on voting of other members and the age of the voter has no association with his vote preference.
9. For details on CSDS-Lokiniti data on the National Election and State Election Studies see https://www.csds.in/lokniti
10. Sanjay Kumar and Praveen Ria (2013), Measuring Voting Behaviour in India, discussed about various methods used for measuring voters’ opinion, attitudes and perceptions and captures the multiple methodologies used for measuring voting behaviour in India in the past and present.
11. Ashutosh Kumar and Yatindra Singh Sisodia (ed) (2019), How India Votes: A State-By-State Look, is a book that draw from the CSDS-Lokniti National Elections Study 2014 data. The book as a whole examine the various multi-level changes in Indian polity and their reflection in voting patterns and benefit from long established sources of data as explained by the Kumar in the introduction (pp1-34) and the final method by Verma and Sardesai.
12. A study conducted by YouthNet, Nagaland on the election expenses observed that in 2008 Elections, an approximate amount of Rs 569, 96,00000 was spent by candidates, in 2013 it was a staggering amount of Rs. 937,82,67,500 and in 2018 general election a whopping over Rs 1,060 crore – Rs 10,61,09,25,000 to be precise was cumulatively spent by 196 candidates to buy votes and to muscle manpower during election.
13. There was huge margin of votes difference between INC and NDPP in Assembly Constituencies of 47 Mon Town A/C, 47 Aboi A/C, 48 Moka A/C, 49 Tamlu A/C, Tuensang Sadar II A/C and 45 Tehok A/C. For details see ceonagaland.nic.in/GETLS2019.
14. In 2014 Lok Sabha election, Nagaland recorded the highest voter’s turnout in India, Source-Election Commission of India and in 2019 Lok Sabha election, voters’ turnout was 83.08% with male percentage at 83.45% and female percentage at 82.70%, source Report on the General election to the 17th Lok Sabha, 2019, Chief Electoral Officer, Nagaland.
15. As also opined by Jelle Wouters and Roderick Wijunamai in The Cultural Politics of Proxy Voting in Nagaland (2019). Village (or clan) councils often advertise their collective voting decisions in Nagaland dailies well prior to Election Day. The contest of Lok Sabha election was more than a contest over party ideologies and principles or over well-defined political issues then is a politics of proxy votes.
16. In Naga party politics, it raises the question as to whether parties represent a broader range of local and social group interest in representation to power to function from the point of stability, governance and socio-economic development of the state. The number of parties represented in the Assembly started to fragmented after the 1998 elections and the number of political parties participated in the election was more than double since 1998. However, judging by the electoral performances and longevity of the parties many parties were not able to secured seat and also created the politics of alignment and realignment of political parties.
17.Party identification means a long-term psychological attachment to a political party. Campbell and Colleagues (1960) argued that primarily arise from early life and social conditions of the individual. In established democracies, parents play a central role in the socialising of these partisan identities.
18. In 2018 General Election (Nagaland), the INC did not secure even a single seat in legislative assembly and recorded the worst performance. The BJP registered the biggest gainer with twelve seats better than its earlier best performance of seven seats in 2003. It shows electorates identification to a particular party varies from election to election.
19.The term ‘social capital’ was popularised by Robert Putnam in Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (2001) Putnam’s conceptualised social capital as public good is elevated from a feature of individuals to a feature of large population aggregates. Social capital becomes a collective trait functioning at the aggregate level.
20. Chawla, Navin (2019), Every Vote Counts: The Story of India’s Elections, HarperCollins India.
21. Kumar, Ashutosh & Yatindra Singh Sisodia, (ed) (2019), How India Votes: A State-By-State Look, Orient Blackswan Pvt Ltd, New Delhi.
22. Wouters, Jelle JP (2019), Nagas As a Society Against Voting and Other Essays, The Highlander books, Kohima, Thimphu, Edinburg, Printed in India.