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“The history of most civilizations is a tale of the rise and fall of empires.”- Kissinger A world order is a systematic pattern of behavior of nation-states across the globe based on certain political, economic, and ideological tools which have the potential to shape global structures in a particular way. B.S. Murthy in Harnam Singh edited Studies in World Order asserts that “World order is the maintenance of peace in the world and to the establishment of a condition in which wars do not pose a threat to the survival of civilization and mankind (Murthy, 1972). Former U.S. Secretary of State, and leading geopolitical consultant, Henry Kissinger profoundly and deliberately addressed the world order over time since the ancient civilizations of Athens and Rome. In his book "World Order" Kissinger simply set the idea influenced by realist dogma-World Order is established by states' attempt to dominate the globe through the support of internal governance and not due to the equilibrium among states in global geopolitics (Kissinger, 2014). Prof. Huntington in his Clash of Civilization and the Remaking of World Order published in 1996, also depicts the coming of a new order which according to the author would be based on a civilizational clash from West to East. These pieces of literature and many more on the subject reflect the view that the global order is dynamic one. It faces challenges from many sides and in course, it shapes, reshapes, and de-shapes its character at transnational levels. It had gone through changes many times in the course of history, and the last time it was prominently changed in the 1990s followed by the Soviet disintegration. The idea of Russo dominating world order is a crucial and complex phenomenon. Russia has been one of the major power in global politics for centuries. Cold War politics has witnessed the geopolitical tussle of the Soviet Union as a major power and rival to the United States. Following the Soviet disintegration, the world witnessed the U.S.-dominated global order. Russia in the 21st century has perfectly expanded its assertive role in global geopolitics particularly in neighboring countries, and the efforts to promote its soft power beyond Eurasia, especially in the Middle Eastern geopolitics has been viewed as an attempt to act as a global leader. Declining of the U.S.-led global order in dealing with recent skirmishes, wars, and clashes in Asia and Africa; the sluggish pace of the neo-liberal economy; emerging power structure of ideologically opposed ones have tremendously affected the global order in post-pandemic days. The study "Russia in Post-Pandemic world order: Geopolitical Implications for India”, has been conducted with keeping considerations of changing global order and the state's strategy to deal with the upcoming global order- which might be beneficial to some, but not for all. The Pandemic (Covid-19) outburst in November 2019 in China and spreads throughout global villages in the first quarter of 2020, has intensified the transitional process of global order in a more complex way. Studies of many research institutions, think tanks, and academic discussions in the field of International Relations are centered on a very common theme, what would be the world order in post-pandemic days? Who will dominate the emerging world order? Neo-liberal order could survive or it would be replaced by neo-realism? Multilateral order would be featured or again the world will witness superpower domination etc.? These questions are very complex and quite difficult to answer at this moment. But the one very clear thing is that the current world order will be replaced by a new one. This analytical paper is divided into three sections: in the first section, attempts have been taken to describe- an understanding of the Post-Soviet world order and the impact of Covid-19; the second section is focused on why post-pandemic order is likely to be dominated by Russia; and finally, the third section is looking for geopolitical implications of the upcoming global order on India’s global strategy?

The study on the Post-Pandemic World order is a recent trend in the discussion of global politics. World Order is a pattern of behavior of nation-states in global politics and a dynamic phenomenon. Henry Kissinger in his book World Order delineates- any system of world order to be sustainable requires acceptance by citizens and not only by states (Kissinger, 2014). Muzaffar Ercan Yilmaz in his The New World Order: An Outline of the Post-Cold War Era discussed an analytical understanding of the Post-Cold War world order (YlLMAZ, 2008). The work also highlighted the undisputed hegemony of the U.S led liberal order. The post-cold War world order led by the UN-led international institutions is expected to ensure international peace and security with active support from the world's major powers (Slaughter, 1997) has been featured in The Real New World Order by Anne Marie Slaughter. The different perspectives of world order have been highlighted in US, Chinese, and Russian Perspectives on the Global Order by Peter Bolt. In this work Bolt argues that the US in global politics has lost its hegemony and China and Russia will fill the vacuum in the near future (Bolt, 2015). Russia's revanchist outlook toward global politics has the potential to overturn the U.S.-led liberal international order (Gotz&Merlen, 2019). Russian foreign policy in recently harnessed the waves of renationalization; a re-assertion of sovereignty; negative responses to globalization in many societies; and a growing role of military-political factors (Karaganov & Suslov, 2019). These literatures provides an assessment of different aspects of the changing world order where Russia is believed to play a crucial role. The covid-19 pandemic has intensified this transitional process. An attempt has been taken in this work to analyze and assess the post-pandemic world order and Russian influence on this changing world order. The signs of Russia's dominated world order are clearly reflected in its interventional role in the global crisis.

Section-I: Understanding Post-Soviet World Order

The post-Soviet order was characterized as neo-liberal order dominated by the U.S. and its allies. This order has started to face challenges from the assertive rise of China in global economics and with the coming back of revisionist Russia in the 21st Century. The emergence of medium size economies in Asia, Africa, and Europe has also influenced the U.S.-dominated world order by creating regional, sub-regional, and transnational forums of geopolitics and geo-economics. Now, coming to the very important aspect of post-pandemic order is that which state or set of states will shape the emerging global order? Though quite difficult to answer in one word it is assumed that revisionist Russia will play a very crucial role in post-pandemic order. Great imperialist history, military culture, geopolitical interests, prominent role in global politics since the first world war, and aspiration to dominate global politics, etc., are crucial in shaping Russo dominated global order. Since Primakov doctrine Russian political elites emphasized the need for a geopolitical center crucial to Russian interests and should be free from Western dominance- a global order where no country single handily or with its allies will shape the course of the global economy, governance, and global decision-making. Russia has been vocal about the U.S. interference in the state affairs of many countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe. U.S. interference in global decision-making has been viewed by Russian elites as a process of imposing the U.S. will on the global community and hence is unacceptable to them.

The deepening ties with China, Iran, and Pakistan nexus are an alarming threat to India and its Western allies. Russia-China has been consultative, creative, cooperative, and sponsorial of the new rule for the world. The heightening cooperation between both has been a game changer in a Chinese trade war with the U.S. as it gets geopolitical and geo-economic support from Russia.  The crucial success for Russian policymakers comes in the form of improving and deepening ties with the European Union and the rift in NATO Countries; Russia has successfully negotiated with them on grounds of energy, geo-economic, geo-strategy, and on cultural grounds. Despite of opposed ideology these countries have been successfully engaged in reshaping the contemporary global order. The numerous examples of the failure of the U.S. interventionist role in global crisis (Sino-India, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, and many other spots); failure of the U.S. intelligence; outsider (Russian) interferences in domestic politics of the U.S. and the gradual decline of the U.S. hegemony in middle-eastern and South-East Asian geopolitics marked an end of the U.S. dominated world order.

The recent development in global geopolitics particularly- Covid-19 and China’s failure to deal with the pandemic, its role, misleading information about the outburst of Covid-19, trade debt, atrocities on Uighur Muslims-minorities, and like, questioned the Chinese responsibility towards the global community. However, in the pursuit of global politics China can easily bypass these issues and may develop a global order of its interests in the upcoming future. But the subsequent downfall of the Chinese economy and a shrinking population with slowing productivity growth are the major obstacles in the Chinese path. On the contrary Russia under Putin has emerged as an important player in global geopolitics and has severally challenged the U.S.-led West's order. The very reason behind Russia's emergence as an important player in the world order is discussed in the next section.

Section II: Russia in the Post-Pandemic World Order

There are several reasons why it seems that the Post-Pandemic order is going to be dominated by Russia, the central question highlighted in this paper is: why the post-pandemic global order is likely to be dominated by Russia? The answer to this question is very clear and that is, once it had tried to dominate the global order in the 20th Century but it fails due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, economic breakdown, the U.S.-led global geopolitics constrained the Russian aspiration to dominate world order. But it doesn’t mean anyhow that Kremlin has accepted the U.S.-dominated world order. Kremlin has aspired to view Russia in the form of what it was in 1914. Russia then was stretched from the Bering Sea in the east to Austria, the Baltic Sea in the West, and the Arctic Sea in the north to Persian Empire in the south. This common notion of Russians found a geopolitical shape in the form of Primakov Doctrine, which calls for a Russian center of global order despite its collapsed economic and political set-up.

The Russian foreign policy under Yevgeny Primakov, Russian foreign minister in 1996 known as Primakov Doctrine reflects that they were not subscribed to or interested in the U.S.-led global order of the West rather it calls for positioning Russia as an independent center of power in global geopolitics (Julia&Eugene, 2019) Though many academic critics and strategic thinkers were in doubt and still questions are emerged on this doctrine because of the Russian economy. But the firm belief to dominate global geopolitics and the quest to develop its own theatre of geopolitical gravity is reflected in its foreign engagements. The growing might of Russia in global politics can be traced in recent geopolitical developments such as the "annexation of Crimea, War in eastern Ukraine, Military deployment in Syria, tense military standoff with the West in the Baltic and Black Seas, and the interference in the U.S. and European domestic politics have all enhanced Russia’s image as a major power with significant power projection capabilities… along with its improvised warfare capabilities and operations shorts of war in multiple domains- land, air, space, sea, cyber, and information operations (Julia&Eugene, 2019).

This was something a different perspective adopted by the Russian premier Yeltsin. Yeltsin in the 1990s followed a moderate political order; the soft approach of Yeltsin towards Western Europe and the U.S. makes him laudable in the Western world. But his successor Vladimir Putin has started his tenure with an aggressive foreign outlook toward the Western-led order. As a result it Russian journey started under Putin's premiership with the almost ten-fold rise in the defense budget since the beginning of the 21st century (Hass, 2010) Putin's Russia has emerged as a major challenge to western led global order. Putin's legacy could not be analyzed in one research paper but, surely, he shaped Russia in such a way that one may dislike it but none can ignore it (Bobo, 2018) Russia’s success in 21st-century global geopolitics is synonymous with the success of Putin as he and Russian foreign developments are complimentary to each other. Putin’s visionary policies got staunch domestic support in Russia.

Another important reason why the Post-Pandemic order is going to be dominated by Russia is increasing Russian acceptance at international, regional, and transnational organizations important for economic, political, and diplomatic support to run a global order. These institutions are of crucial importance and have the potential to shape the global order in particular. Russia since the second term of Putin has started to focus on non-western organizations of trade and politics. These resulted in Russia’s increasing involvement in SCO, BRICS, RIC, EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union) and initiating EEF (Eastern Economic Forum) 2015 and many others. Russia took the chairmanship of BRICS in 2015 which enables it to expand its geopolitical footsteps. One of the major important achievements of Russia as BRICS chair was that it develop a policy to reform global financial and economic infrastructure jointly with organizations (Toloraya, 2022) SCO serves the common interests of both China and Russia in global geopolitics. Russia shares 24% of SCO's budget equivalent to that of China and followed by Kazakhstan. SCO’s intergovernmental role in Asian geopolitics is intangible and irreplaceable. The EEF and EAEU serve the diplomatic needs of Russia in the best way. These organizations provide boosts to the Russian economy and in return, Russia provides them with diplomatic and geopolitics support. RIC is also seen as an Asian order which shares the common interests of the major powers of Asia.

Russia's return to Middle East's geopolitics almost after two decades has changed the power structure in the region. Russian involvement in Syria, growing ties with Iran, and supporting both Israel and Lebanon make the power structures of the region more complex and deteriorating. American self-proclaimed war on terror and growing tensions in the Middle East are fruitfully exploited by Russia. Moscow's aggressive and bold military steps in Syria enable its position pivotal and positioned as an important actor in the region. The formation of RSII+1(Russia, Syria Iran, Iraq +Hezbollah) is a new quadruple alliance emerged in recent days. The geopolitical implications of it have to be that Israel- the staunch U.S. supporter in the region should go against Russia but surprisingly Israel avoided this alliance and wants to develop ties with Russia differently. Iraq also looking for deepening its ties with Russia. The deteriorating Iran-Russia relationship got momentum when Russia come in favor of Iran's supporter Bashar Al Asad in Syria. Trump’s announcement of withdrawing forces from Afghanistan and Iraq makes the opportunity Russians were looking for to get a stronghold in the region. Russia has developed a pragmatic foreign relationship with Israel in the Middle East. They signed a military cooperation pact in 2015. This year (2020) the back-to-back meeting of the heads of state in both Jerusalem and Moscow is seen as a signal of crucial changes going to happen in the near future. Both the statesmen agreed on developing and deepening a strong relationship. Though things would be a little difficult for Russia to adjust between Iran and Israel given the circumstances they would not have other choices rather than developing ties. Russia is cleverly eying Erdogan's Turkey as both countries despite differences maintained good business and political relationships. The important tie-up could well be understood by an increase of U.S. $81.6 Million in February 2020 (Despite Covid-19, Russia-Turkey 2020 Bilateral Trade is up 9%, 2020) Moreover, Russia Turkey, and Iran signed a trilateral Alliane of Convenience to secure own foreign interests. It develops an important relationship with Saudi Arabia with whom its relationship deteriorated since 1979. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s several visits make the path of the first Saudi king's visit to Russia after 1979. The improving Pakistan-Russia relationship is also catalytic in Russian entrance into Muslim Dom. These recent geopolitical changes and requirements projected and strengthened Russia’s credible international role in the trajectories of the Post-Pandemic world order.

Finally, the most important reason behind hypothesized Russian-dominated global order is its growing power-projection capabilities and using soft power and diplomacy to solve some major threats to the global community in recent years. As mentioned earlier Russia's military intervention in Crimea, Syria, Ukraine, Georgia, etc., a proxy war with the U.S., and Turkey this year in Libya, and Armenia-Azerbaijan war, etc., all these developments lead towards uncertainty- geopolitically fruitful for Russia. The weakening America in recent days failed to mediate successfully in global conflicts by the 2020s which Russia using its diplomatic tool and soft skill has fruitfully exploited. The major war of this year Armenia-Azerbaijan was traced by Russia after about two weeks on October 10, 2020 (Lavrov, 2019) The intervention in Sino-India Clashes at LAC (Line of Actual Control) in September 2020. And the same interventionist strategy has been adopted by Russians in the most problematic place in the world Palestine-Israel in 2019. Though some thought of Russian intervention as 'Silencing the conflicts rather than Solving (Ibrahim&Leonld, n.d.) Though there are several criticisms of Russia for providing fake information about the success of its interferences, none can ignore the proactive role Russia has played in recent years in global geopolitics. The geopolitical trends in Covid-19 days and the Russian response particularly in Vaccine development are seen as credible international behavior, though it is full of doubt. There are also several discussions going on in favor of the Chinese global order which seems a little difficult after the alleged role in spreading this Covid-19 Virus or at least in misleading the global community regarding the spread of it. As it was reported that this virus attacked China in Nov-Dec 2019 but they hide it and even the data regarding the death which put several questions on Chinese credibility towards the global community.

Section III: Russian World Order: Geopolitical Implications for India

The Indo-Russian multifaceted relationship has featured the vision of shared interests, friendship, and international cooperation. This all-weather friendship can be divided into three-time frames. The first time frame of the Indo- USSR relationship started with India's independence till the Soviet disintegration in 1991. The remarkable feature of this period was the Russian assistance to India in the 1971 war. The Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1971 has been a watershed moment in the bilateral relationship between both the USSR and India (70-years-of-india-russia-relations-a-historic-milestone, 2018). The defence business and geopolitical support to India on several issues of global politics. The intact support to India in Kashmir is very much helpful for India. At then the Western block was in favor of Pakistan and Russia was the only superpower that sided with India. It was also reported that Russia helped India in developing its nuclear power capabilities in the 1970s. The Indian side though declared non-alignment in foreign policy posture inclined towards the Soviet Union till the 1990s.

The second period (1990s) was somewhat different and tumultuous from the first time frame. Starting since 1991 with the Soviet disintegration, the Indo-Russian relationship has faced some non-cooperative years as both countries have decided to move alone. Both aimed towards the West for developing political ties to fit in global geopolitics and geo-economics. Russia was politically and economically collapsed. Though there were attempts have been taken by both sides to develop a meaningful relationship as they signed the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1993, Bilateral Military Technical Agreement in 1994, etc., the expected relationship between the two was not fulfilled. This relationship has got momentum since the beginning of the 21st century. Putin's visit to India in 2000 after 9 years of distrust has started to shape the new feathers in the Indo-Russian relationship. The global strategic support and understanding of both countries led to the signing Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership in 2010 with Dimitri Medvedev’s visit to India. The bilateral relationship reached a continuous height with the signing of the Deepening Strategic Partnership for Global Peace and Prosperity in 2013, Druzhba-Dosti Strategic Partnership in 2014, PM Midi’s visit and Putin's visit and head of states meeting at St. Petersburg in 2017,  Sochi in 2018, and at Vladivostok in 2019 enables the path of future cooperation and strategic partnership to secure the shared interests. The multi-sectoral cooperation during covid-19 and the growing economic partnership amid Ukraine War lifted the relationship to a new height.

Though we have a good and fruitful relationship with Russia, the recent development in Russian foreign policy and its growing ties with India's adversaries is a matter of serious concern. Both countries shared a long historical relationship of friendship, mutual trust, and shared interests. Yet, several challenges have emerged in the Indo-Russian relationship which geopolitically has not been discussed and it was left for future engagements. There are several factors/geopolitical developments that influenced the Indo-Russian relationship. These geopolitical factors have the potential to transform the Indo-Russian relationship in the near future:

1. India's Increasing Ties with the West: India's growing ties with the West is certainly the most negative sign in the Indo-Russian relationship. Russia is one of the major critics of the U.S.-led Western order and India's proximity with the U.S. is never acceptable to Russians. India’s defense deal with France, Israel, and America is going to disturb the Russian interests in India which it sees as a growing market for its defence businesses. Russia has also seen India as an emerging power and trustworthy actor in its new global order strategy. The geopolitical rhetoric of the Indo-Pacific where India and the U.S. shared the future geopolitical vision by improving bilateral ties has also displeased Russia (Lavrov, 2019). The signing of LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement 2016); COMCASA (Compatibility and Security Agreement 2018); QUAD (quadrilateral security dialogue) are important factors having potentialities to change the Indo-Russian relationship.

2. Improving Russian ties with China, Pakistan, and Iran: The growing ties of the world's two powerful statesmen Putin and Xi, and attempts to develop an Asian order to respond to the U.S.-led global order, indicates the major shift in international systems. Russian determination to create an 'Axis of Cooperation' (Russia, China, and Pakistan) is a matter of greater concern in the Indo-Russian relationship. Russia's growing ties with China are reflected in multiple domains. India’s ‘west tilt' is responded to by Russia’s proximity with India’s adversaries China and Pakistan. Growing Indo-U.S. ties also deteriorate India's relationship with Iran, with whom China and Russia strengthening ties in the wake of emerging geopolitics. These are the least factors apart from which there are also several other factors like supporting China on most of the grounds, even defence on the outbreak of Covid-19, joint military exercise with Pakistan, and many more incidents are there which indicate an unprofitable compromise in the Indo-Russian relationship.

3. Changing geopolitical Priorities: Despite the upper mentioned conditions which are normally considered a common pattern of the bilateral relationship, the changing geopolitical priorities have produced several setbacks in the Indo-Russia relationship. Unlike the cold war politics, new tactics of global politics are exercised by Russia which is reflected in its engagements with ideologically opposed states Israel and Turkey. Influenced by China’s development- the doctrines of three enemies- 'imperialism, revisionism, and reactionism (Budhraj, 1980) have been ignored by major powers in the changing geopolitical priorities. Russia's recent developments are clear enough to note that the very aim of revisionist Russia is to create its own center of geopolitical gravity by bypassing the U.S. Geopolitically, it emerged powerful enough to shape the future directions of emerging global order.

4. Implications for India: These developments have crucial geopolitical implications for India in the Post-Pandemic global order. Russians will play a decisive role and China will be there to support Russia to take an edge on the U.S. in global geo-economics. The deteriorating Sino-Indian relationship on the one hand and the other hand deepening ties between Sino-Pak produce several threats to India. Russia's deepening relationship with China, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and Israel and the subsequent weakening of the U.S. has produced several threats to India in the Post-Pandemic world. Getting the heat of changing geopolitical dimensions and increasing Russian influence on global order, New Delhi has expected to take adequate measures.

This study follows the qualitative methodology of research based on the descriptive analysis of available literature. The study is carried out with the help of data available both as primary and secondary sources: government official statements, press briefs, books, academic journals, online interviews, ideas from international and national webinars, etc.

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