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India is the largest milk producing country in the world. Milk is an important source protein to the Indian vegetarian population. Milk is also a good source of calcium, vitamin B2, vitamin B5 and vitamin B12. Currently India contributes nearly 24 % share in global milk production. Even after good therapeutic value and significant production of milk, per capita availability of milk in India is low as compared to other countries (Table-1) despite the fact that majority of Indian population is vegetarian. Milk is an important component of an average Indian’s daily diet. Besides this, sweats and other products made up of milk are abundantly sold and consumed during festivals and other religious and ceremonial events. Recently India’s population has crossed China’s population. Hence, it becomes imperative to study growth and instability in production of milk in India so that timely arrangements can be made in case of shortfalls in milk production. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess.

S. P. Samal et al. (2017) made an attempt to analyse the growth and instability in foodgrains production using 20 years’ time series data from 1995-96 to 2014-15 across various districts in Odisha. The study was divided into two decades. The results of the study indicated that the first decade (1995-96 to 2004-05) remained sluggish due to nil growth rate in production of foodgrains in the state. However, the second decade showed impressive growth rate in food grains in the state. Instability in foodgrains production reduced in the second decade indicating that the risk in foodgrains production in the state has decreased. Shabana Anjum and Madhulika (2018) examined growth and instability in Indian agriculture considering several crops for a period of 26 years ranging from 1990-91 to 2016-17. The study was divided into three sub-periods. The study observed several fluctuations in the growth patterns in area, production and productivity of crops. Similarly, different patterns of instability in area, production and productivity of crops were also found to be present in the study.

Y. K. Pandey et al. (1921) analysed growth and instability in inland fish production in India. The study was carried out for a period of forty years ranging from1980 to 2020.Overall growth rate of inland fish production was found to be 6.29 %. Decadal instability in inland fish production was approximately 2 % whereas it was 4.94 % for the whole period. Due to high growth rate and low instability in inland fish production, the study suggested it to be a profitable enterprise specially for small and marginal farmers. Y. K. Pandey et al. (2021) examined growth and instability in marine fish production in India for a study period extending to four decades (1980-2020). The study indicated that the instability in marine fish production remained less than 10 % during all four decades. However, the growth rate in marine fish production was not satisfactory as it declined from 3.79 % in the very first decade to 0.75 % in the subsequent decades.

M. K. Jally (2023) attempted to analyse growth and instability in Indian agriculture and made decomposition analysis of growth in production of crops. The study period extended from 1986-87 to 2021-22 and this period was further divided into 4 sub-periods of 9 years each. Foodgrains, oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton crops were covered in the study. The study indicated that the growth performance of all the crops was not up to mark in the second sub-period extending from 1995-96 to 2003-04. However, the production and productivity of foodgrains remained stable as compared to other crops during all sub-periods. M. K. Jally (2023) examined growth and instability in agriculture in Uttar Pradesh including decomposition analysis of crop production. The study covered a period of 30 years extending from 1991-92 to 2020-21. The study period was divided into three sub-periods of one decade each. The study indicated high growth rate and high instability in crop production and productivity in Uttar Pradesh agriculture in first and third decades of the study period.

Table-1: Milk Production in leading countries in the world in 2021

Sr. No.	Name of the Countries	Milk Production (Million Tonnes)	Population (Millions)	Availability of Milk (Kg per capita per annum)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.	India USA Pakistan China Brazil Germany Russia France	208.98 102.65 59.67 41.71 36.66 33.19 32.33 25.43	1407.56 337.00 231.40 1457.93 214.33 83.41 145.10 64.53	148.47 304.60 257.87 28.61 171.04 397.91 222.81 394.08

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of production and per capita availability of milk is estimated with the help of exponential trend model as follows:

            X_t = A (1 + r)^t e       or

            X_t = A b^t e

ð  Ln (X_t) = Ln (A) + t Ln (b) + Ln (e)

Where:

            X_t = Production of milk in the year t,

            A = Intercept term,

b (slope parameter in log linear model) = 1 + r

r X 100 = CAGR (%) and    t = Time (Years).

Estimation of Instability in Milk Production

Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Coppock’s Instability Index (CII) have been used to estimate instability in milk production. Coefficient of Variation (CV) is not reliable measure of instability in case of time series data having trends and overestimate the actual result. Coppock’s Instability Index (CII) is an appropriate measure of variability possessing a close approximation of average year to year growth in variable quantity under study and is adjusted for trend present in the series. Lower figure of CII indicates low level of instability. CII was developed by J. D. Coppock in 1962. The formula of CII is as follows:

Where:

            X_t = Production of milk in t^th year,

            N = Number of years,

            V ln = Logarithmic variance of the series,

            Ln = Natural log,

            Exp refers to anti-log of natural logarithm and  = Mean of the series.

Present study covers a period of 40 years extending from 1982-83 to 2021-22. Time series data on milk production and per capita availability of milk in India and abroad were obtained from the websites of FAO statistics (abroad) and of Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics-2022, Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Ministry of Fisheries, animal Husbandry and Dairying, Government of India. In order to reduce the effect of trend on instability in production of milk, the whole period was divided into four sub-periods of ten years (one decade) each. Time period from 1982-83 to 1991-92 refers to decade-I, from 1992-93 to 2001-02 refers to decade-II, from 2002-03 to 2011-12 refers to decade-III and the decade-IV refers to the period 2012-13 to 2021-22. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR):- Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of production and per capita availability of milk is estimated with the help of exponential trend model as follows: Xt = A (1 + r)t e or Xt = A bt e Ln (Xt) = Ln (A) + t Ln (b) + Ln (e) Where: Xt = Production of milk in the year t, A = Intercept term, b (slope parameter in log linear model) = 1 + r r X 100 = CAGR (%) and t = Time (Years). Estimation of Instability in Milk Production:- Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Coppock’s Instability Index (CII) have been used to estimate instability in milk production. Coefficient of Variation (CV) is not reliable measure of instability in case of time series data having trends and overestimate the actual result. Coppock’s Instability Index (CII) is an appropriate measure of variability possessing a close approximation of average year to year growth in variable quantity under study and is adjusted for trend present in the series. Lower figure of CII indicates low level of instability. CII was developed by J. D. Coppock in 1962. The formula of CII is as follows: CII = [Exp (√(V ln)) – 1] * 100 V ln⁡〖= 〗 〖[∑▒ln⁡( X_(t+1)/X_t )-M]〗^2/N M= (∑(lnX_(t+1)-lnX_t ))/N CV= √(〖〖(X〗_t-X̅)〗^2/N)/(X̅) Where: Xt = Production of milk in tth year, N = Number of years, V ln = Logarithmic variance of the series, Ln = Natural log, Exp refers to anti-log of natural logarithm and X̅ = Mean of the series.

Statistical Analysis has been used.

Production and per capita availability of milk:- A general pattern of production of milk and its per capita availability in India is shown in table-2. As shown in the table, the production of milk has increased steadily over the years. However, the fourth decade has shown steep rise in production of milk in India (figure-1). During the study period, growth rate of production of milk in India has been more than the growth rate of India’s population. As a result, per capita availability has also increased all through 

the years of study. Graphical comparison of per capita availability of milk during four decades of the study period is shown in figure-2. It is evident from the graph that per capita availability of milk to the Indian population has sharply increased in the last decade. In absolute terms, per capita availability of milk has increased by 39 grams per day in first decade, 40 grams per day in second decade, 65 grams per day in third decade and 148 grams per day in the final decade. Even after such a big jump in per

 

capita availability of milk, the final availability of milk still remains below 500 grams per day per capita despite the fact it is the only source of animal protein to a large vegetarian population of India. Therefore, more efforts are needed to augment supply milk in the country.

Growth Rate in Production and per capita availability of Milk:- Growth rate in production of milk is shown in the table-3. As discussed earlier and is also evident from the table, the growth rate in production of milk hovered between 4 % to 5 %  during first three decades of the study period. However, in the fourth decade of the study period, the growth rate in production of milk was more than 6 % indicating significant improvement in the supply of milk. Similarly, the growth rate in per capita availability of milk remained moderate in first three decades of the study period (in the range of

Table-3: Growth rate in production of milk in India

Sl. No.	Time period	Growth parameter (b statistics)	R2	Growth rate (in %)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.	Decade-I Decade-II Decade-III Decade-IV Over all	0.046351*** 0.04139*** 0.045162*** 0.058914*** 0.043671***	0.979 0.998 0.997 0.999 0.996	4.74 4.23 4.62 6.07 4.46

*** Significant at 1 % level of significance

Table-4: Growth rate in per capita availability of milk in India

Sl. No.	Time period	Growth parameter (b statistics)	R2	Growth rate (in %)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.	Decade-I Decade-II Decade-III Decade-IV Over all	0.024786*** 0.022161*** 0.030135*** 0.04717*** 0.026715***	0.930 0.996 0.992 0.997 0.977	2.51 2.24 3.06 4.83 2.71

*** Significant at 1 % level of significance

2.24 % to 3.06%). However in the final decade, per capita availability of milk increased significantly to 4.83 % (table-4).

Instability in Production of Milk:- Instability in production of milk in India is shown in the table-5. Coefficient of Variation has been found to be maximum (16.87 %) for milk production in the final decade, which has also observed highest growth rate in milk production. However, trend is present in the time series data of milk production in India

Table-5: Instability in production of milk in India

Sl. No.	Time period	Coefficient of Variation (%)	Coppock’s Instability Index (%)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.	Decade-I Decade-II Decade-III Decade-IV Over all	13.18 11.82 12.95 16.87 51.21	1.9 0.61 0.95 0.73 1.35

and Coppock’s Instability Index (CII) gives reliable figure for instability in production of milk. In the first decade of the study period, high instability of 1.9 % was observed in milk production. Low CII (0.73 %) was observed in the final decade, which has also witnessed maximum growth rate in milk production in India. Therefore, the study is concluded with the result that finally India has achieved high growth rate in milk production with low instability, thereby making the dairying a less risky and high growth oriented enterprise.

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2. Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics (2022), Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying.

3. Jally, M. K. (2023). “Growth, Instability and Decomposition Analysis of Indian Agriculture”, International Research Journal of Management, Sociology and Humanities, 14(4): 366-372.

4. Jally, M. K. (2023). “Growth, Instability and Decomposition Analysis of Agriculture Sector in Uttar Pradesh”, International Journal of All Research Education and Scientific Methods, 11(4): 1862-1866.

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6. Pandey, Y. K.; M.K. Jally and Sunil Kumar (2021). “Growth and Instability Analysis of Marine fish production in India”, Frontiers in Crop Improvement, 9(4): 1461-1465.

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8. FAOSTAT database (2023), Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.