ISSN: 2456–5474 RNI No.  UPBIL/2016/68367 VOL.- VIII , ISSUE- IX October  - 2023
Innovation The Research Concept
The Mutual Economic Relations Among SAARC Countries: Analysis and Conclusion
Paper Id :  18229   Submission Date :  14/10/2023   Acceptance Date :  17/10/2023   Publication Date :  22/10/2023
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DOI:10.5281/zenodo.10283579
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Praveen Kumar
Research Scholar
Economics
Jai Narain Vyas University
Jodhpur,Rajasthan, India
Abstract

This research paper delves into the intricate nexus between political dynamics and economic relationships within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), emphasizing the impact of these interactions, particularly in the context of India-Pakistan relations. SAARC stands as a pivotal platform binding various South Asian nations in political, cultural, and economic realms. In this paper, data is collected from the World Bank and the findings from reviewing of bunch of books.

Keywords Mutual Economic, Relations, SAARC Countries, Analysis, Conclusion.
Introduction

There are many organizations in the world recognized for their significant work in various fields such as political, cultural, economic, industrial, social, and technological areas. Among these, the United Nations (UN) is considered the most important, under which subsidiary organizations have excelled in multiple sectors. The European Union, NATO, FATE, AIIB, G20, OIC, G7, NASA, BIMSTEC, TRAFFIC, ASEAN, BRICS and SAARC, among others, are considered vital and leading organizations in the world. Among these, SAARC is an organization that politically, culturally, and economically binds the entire South Asia, and for emerging economies like India, this organization holds immense significance.

Aim of study

Understand the Economic Progress of SAARC Member Nations: Utilize GDP statistics to demonstrate and compare the economic growth and development of SAARC member countries, emphasizing the impact of the organization on their economic advancement.

Review of Literature

Taneja, N., & S. Bimal (2020). "Informal trade in the SAARC region" stated in her paper about the informal trade between SAARC countries and focused on the status of SAPTA and SAFTA trade agreements as well as bilateral trade agreements and discovered that a significant portion of India's trade flow to SAARC countries occurs due to tariff and non-tariff barriers, and if SAFTA includes those goods, India's exports will increase.

Sharma, V. (2021) in his paper titled "Indo-SAARC Trade Trend during the COVID-19 Era" explores the impact of the pandemic on India's international trade with SAARC countries. The author, utilizing data from the Export-Import Data Bank of the Government of India's Department of Commerce, conducted a comprehensive analysis covering the period from July 2019 to August 2020 on a monthly basis. The findings indicate that from July 2019 to February 2020, the percentage of India's trade with SAARC nations fluctuated between 3.12 percent and 3.53 percent, dropping to 1.95 percent in April 2020. Subsequently, this percentage rose, reaching its peak in July 2020 at 3.74 percent. Additionally, the study revealed that India's exports exceeded its imports from SAARC countries during the period from July 2019 to August 2020.

Analysis

Through this organization, India has been able to foster better relations with its neighbouring countries and has seen significant progress in promoting its cultural values and exploring ways to enhance its economy. India's economy holds the potential to impact the global economy and, after China, it is recognized as a significant economic power in Asia. In comparison to other SAARC countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bhutan, India's economy has grown more extensive and influential. This has led to an increased influence and dominance of India within the SAARC organization.

Ongoing and separate disputes persisting between India and its adversarial neighbour Pakistan have led to complications and discontent in their economic relations and commercial dealings. Pakistan's political and economic crises, alongside its disorder, not only pose a threat at the regional level among other SAARC participating countries but also affect global concerns. This situation has inevitably influenced India's politics and economic interactions.

Over time, the countries within SAARC strategically evaluate their political and economic relationships based on their respective interests. India's various governments have notably succeeded in this approach, with the most successful example being the analysis of relations between India and Pakistan, the two SAARC countries. Despite the deteriorating political and strategic ties between India and Pakistan, economic dealings and relations have largely remained intact. This stands as evidence that, if a prioritization between political interests and economic-commercial priorities needs to be made, the focus of any country's government is primarily on economic-commercial matters.

Looking at the India-Pakistan relationship within organizations like SAARC, it may seem that such associations primarily work towards bridging their political conflicts and fostering economic development. It would be unrealistic to expect that SAARC, as an organization, could permanently resolve the political animosity between countries like India and Pakistan. Organizations like SAARC generally aim to slightly improve the current situations and seek possibilities for peace, considering economic interactions as a robust and effective means for this purpose.

Pakistan has consistently engaged in hostile and inappropriate political conduct towards India, but in the realm of economic relations, both countries have maintained a somewhat stable system. Robert G. Wirsing, in his article 'India Pakistan Relations: Breaking with the past?', comments that "At the SAARC summit in January 2004, India and Pakistan jointly signed a seemingly stringent additional protocol to the 1987 SAARC regional convention on suppression of terrorism. Most of the organizations banned by India in recent years under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) have been headquartered in Pakistan."

The deteriorating political relations between India and Pakistan and the strengthening economic ties that persist concurrently may seem familiar and acceptable in diplomatic circles for understanding the intricacies of geopolitics. However, for the general audience, this remains a perplexing sequence of events. In reality, SAARC functions more as a bridge that remains less open for India-Pakistan political matters, whereas it stays consistently open for economic interactions.

The global community acknowledges that since the establishment of SAARC, the path for economic progress of South Asian countries has been significantly enhanced. In the book "SAARC: Towards Meaningful Cooperation" by Tomislay Delinic, there is mention of the association of underprivileged countries like Afghanistan with SAARC, and subsequently, their advancement in economic development. "SAARC can play an imperative role in revitalizing the ancient silk road starting from Afghanistan with regards to SAFTA and the principle of integration of the least developed countries (LDCs). The recommendations to the 16th SAARC summit (April 2010) underscore the relevant need for such an initiative."

In reality, the most significant economic advancements through SAARC have indeed been witnessed in countries like Afghanistan and Bhutan. These countries have found opportunities to coordinate with established economic powers in South Asia and benefit from these associations. Despite geopolitical turmoil, Afghanistan's economic distress has been mitigated, and SAARC has proven to be an effective platform to initiate actions for the betterment of the nation's populace.

The relations between countries like India and Sri Lanka within SAARC have seen both improvement and deterioration. The establishment of relations has been based on cultural and historical aspects, yet the deterioration has been attributed, in part, to the dangerous activities of the terrorist group LTTE in Sri Lanka. Despite this, there has been regularity in economic dealings between Sri Lanka and India, and after becoming members of SAARC, both nations have successfully strengthened their economies by utilizing this platform effectively. Commenting on the economic relations between India and Sri Lanka, Colonel Vikram Raina states in his article 'India-Sri Lanka Relations in wake of Sri Lankan economic crisis: Analysis and way forward' that "India has substantial investment in Sri Lankan real estate, manufacturing, petroleum refining, etc."

As Sri Lanka shifted its focus towards China rather than SAARC countries, its economic condition worsened amid entanglements in China's economic strategies. Economic distress affected Sri Lanka's administrative and financial infrastructure. In the past two years, with the assistance of influential SAARC nations like India, Sri Lanka has been making significant strides in rectifying its economic situation appropriately. This sequence of events is indicative of India's strong position and highlights the fact that India is emerging as a rapidly growing economic force in Asia. India has declared itself a de facto leader in SAARC as its economy is extensive and robust, significantly influencing other major and economically powerful countries globally. With continuous improvement in India-Pakistan relations and positive encouragement in economic dealings, India might integrate into the top three or four global powers. This could potentially provide assistance to other SAARC nations in enhancing their economic strength.

SAARC needs to undergo progressive changes in its fundamental economic policies over time to facilitate the development of smaller and economically challenged nations like Bhutan and Nepal. India has consistently maintained better relations with Bhutan and Nepal, consequently impacting the economies of these countries through its economic engagements.

Though Bhutan relies more on India, Nepal has been strengthening its ties with China, resulting in a negative change in the relationship between India and Nepal, particularly in economic terms. Although India and Nepal have been cooperative since the establishment of SAARC, altered political situations have necessitated a negative shift in the relationship, especially in economic behaviour. Authors Dwarika, Dhungel, and Santa B. Pun have analysed the emerging situation in their book 'The Nepal-India Water Relationship: Challenges' in the context of the economic aspects of India-Nepal relations and within the framework of SAARC.

India and Nepal, maintaining their traditional cultural commitments, have come closer due to the platform of SAARC and have continued to encourage dialogue and sustained economic behaviour to promote their economic interactions.

Nisha Taneja writes in her research paper 'Strengthening India-Nepal Economic Relations' that "India and Nepal also grant concessions to each other under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). According to the SAFTA agreement, Nepal is anticipated to provide duty-free status to all products except for 1062 items (HS-6 Digit Level) listed on the sensitive list."

This detail confirms that SAARC and its member countries have been successful in facilitating mutually beneficial economic transactions, especially between historically cultural friends like India and Nepal.

The establishment of SAARC led to the mentioning of the economic success of South Asian countries. Rajeev Kumar and Manjeet, in their research paper 'India’s Role in South Asia Trade and Investment Integration,' note that recent developments in the region, particularly the new growth momentum and increased openness in all South Asian economies, indicate the need for reevaluating and enhancing regional integration. They emphasize that the GDP in South Asian economies has shown robust growth, averaging about 6 percent since the 1990s and nearly 7 percent in the last five years.

SAARC's significance has continually grown among all participating countries and efforts have been made to facilitate mutual cooperation for the betterment of the economic status, aimed at the welfare of the people.

The economic progress of countries like SAARC can be understood through this index.

Country

GDP-2000 (Billion USD)

GDP-2021(Billion USD)

India

476

2700

Pakistan

60

284

Bangladesh

53

340

Nepal

05

34

Bhutan

1.5

2.5

Maldives

06

5.8

Sri Lanka

20

84

Afghanistan

3.5 (Appx.)

19.8

Source: World Bank

By analysing this table related to the GDP of SAARC countries, it becomes evident that only Afghanistan, a country enduring severe political unrest, has seen a declining economic development, while the GDP of other SAARC nations is increasing significantly. If Afghanistan were not a member of SAARC, it is likely that its GDP would have been even more adversely affected.

The analysis and comparative study of the economic behaviour of SAARC countries reveal the success of the organization in achieving economic cohesion and underscores the relevance of the organization for the improvement of economic matters.

Conclusion

"In her article 'SAARC Towards Meaningful Cooperation,' Meera Shankar writes, 'Besides political comments and deeper engagement on the parts of its member states, SAARC needs a new result-oriented conceptual framework and operational culture consistent with the regional ground realities.'"

Meera Shankar's analysis is an expression towards making SAARC stronger and more effective. She emphasizes the importance of economists understanding the significance of SAARC along with national leadership and administrative frameworks to strengthen the economic development foundation in their respective countries for the possibility of overall welfare in the entire South Asia.

References

1. Wirsing, Robert G. "Title of the Article." Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies (APCSS), vol. Oct. 2004, p. 3. Address: 2058 Maluhia Road, Honolulu, HI, 96815.
2. Delinic, Tomislav, and Nischal N. Pandey. "SAARC: Towards Meaningful Cooperation." Modern Printing Press, June 2012, p. 65. Location: Kathmandu, Nepal.
3. Raina, Colonel Vikram. "India-Sri Lanka Relations in the Wake of Sri Lankan Economic Crisis: Analysis and Way Forward." Center for Land Welfare Studies (CLAWS), Issue Brief, Oct. 2022, p. 11.
4. Taneja, Nisha. "Strengthening India-Nepal Economic Relations." Indian Council for Research and International Economic Relations, Working Paper 381, July 2019, p. 6.
5. Kumar, Rajeev, and Manjeet Singh. "India’s Role in South Asia Trade and Investment Integration." Asian Development Bank, No. 32, July 2009.
6. Delinic, Tomislav, and Nischal N. Pandey. "SAARC: Towards Meaningful Cooperation." Modern Printing Press, June 2012, p. 21. Location: Kathmandu, Nepal.
7. Sharma, V. (2021). Indo-SAARC Trade Trend during COVID-19 Era. In Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education (Vol. 12, Issue 2).